In the listings for football matches, there are always bets on the exact score. It might seem like a bad idea to bet on soccer scores. However, it is not necessary to guess the outcome using a single bet. In this article, we will look at several strategies for betting on the correct score in the match.
The idea is that in football, most games end 1-0; 1-1; 0-1. Our task is to select such meetings, which, in our opinion, will end in one of these outcomes. Let's take a look at the odds that bookmakers usually offer. Take, for example, the English Premier League match between Leicester and Watford. One well-known office offers the following odds for this game:
- 1-0– 8,5;
- 0-0– 8,4;
- 1-1 – 7;
- 0-1 – 9,0
- Any other result is 14.5.
The last bet means that one of the teams must score 4 or more goals. We bet the same amount in single bets for each result. For example, if you bet 10 units for each game, then the smallest winnings will be 10, since the odds for 1-1 are 7. The total amount of the bet funds is 50 units, and the winnings are 70. We get a profit of 20 units. In other hands, the winnings turns out to be several times larger.
It is clear that it is possible to lose according to this strategy. To minimize risks, you need to choose the right fights. More or less "correct" variants of outcomes, which fall into the zone of our interests, happen in the championships of Italy, Portugal, Spain, France. Only on the 1-1 account there can be quotes below 7. If we bet on 5 outcomes, then with a result of 1-1 we will get a profit even if the coefficient on it is 6. If we bet on 6 outcomes, then the odds must be higher to make a profit 6. If it is 6, then bet on 5 outcomes.
Analyzing statistics
To find teams suitable for this strategy, you should carefully work with statistics. In general, the strategy can be applied to those championships in which at least 6-8 rounds have passed. During this time, the minimum statistics of the teams' games will appear.
We select teams that play well in defense and do not rush headlong to score goals even in situations where they are losing. It is ideal to find clubs like the Italian teams in the 90s that ended almost half of their Serie A games 1-0 and 1-1. There are similar teams in almost every of the above championships.
We open the statistics, and we find the clubs in which the scores 1-0, 0-0, 1-1,2-1 prevail. It is important that the overwhelming majority of fights were played for less total. The priority for these clubs is playing on the defensive and the desire not to miss. Ideally, when two such teams meet. On weekends, you can find a dozen such meetings, and even more.
Selecting events, we will find out in advance the weather forecast on the day of the game. If the weather is expected to be inclement, with rain, then this is an additional plus for us. In bad weather with heavy rain, the field becomes heavy and slippery. It's pretty hard to create moments on it. Especially for teams that, in normal weather, do not shine with efficiency and spectacular play.
Option 2. We put the express bets
The next method, a little more complicated, is to draw up multiples for accurate accounts. We select those matches in which an equal game is expected. We make sure that the home team does not have a big win advantage, and that the guest team plays more or less successfully away. Next, we select 3-4 accounts, which, in our opinion, are the most probable.
For example, we have selected 3 games. For each of them, the most probable scores were selected, in our opinion: 1-0, 2-1, 2-0. As a rule, the odds for such outcomes are in the range of 7-9. For example, on accounts 1-0 the odds will be 7, on 2-1 - 8, on 1-1 - 8. Next, we compose all the variants of express bets that can be with these outcomes. We get 27 bets with the following odds:
If any of these options plays, then we make a profit. The smallest profit will be from the express with a coefficient of 343. If we bet 1 unit for each of them, then we get a profit equal to 343 - 27 = 316.
It is clear that all bets can be lost. But if at least from the 10th time we win even the minimum amount, we will still get a profit in the end. It is only important to choose a match with the necessary criteria.
It is desirable that the minimum coefficient of one of the multiples be at least 10 times higher than the amount of funds spent. Thus, the player will receive 10 attempts to bet. Having won on the 11th, he will win back all the money spent and will still be in the black.
Bets on the account can consist of multiples and four or more outcomes. In this case, we get 64 options. Even if in some of them the quotes will be 7; 7; 6; 6, then we will get a win of 1764 - 64 = 1700. This is when the win with the lowest odds is. As you can see, with a larger number of options, we get tangible profit and the number of attempts to make a bet increases. You can lose 20 times in a row, but with a one-time win, the losses will be covered and you will get a good plus.
If we include 5 outcomes in the express bets, we get 125 bets. To calculate the possible profit, we take the smallest coefficient of them. Results can be 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0, 0-1. Let's assume that the odds for these single bets will be as follows: 7, 6, 6, 6, 6. We get the total odds of 9072. Subtract from this number the bet amount for all options, we get 9072 - 125 = 8947. We can lose up to 60 times in a row , but, having won at least once, we return all the money and get a small plus.
The main disadvantage of this strategy of betting on the exact score is the fact that the betting process takes a lot of time. It is better to somehow automate the process of drawing up multiples and calculating odds. A good way to solve this problem would be to draw up an Excel table for all variants of express bets with the calculation of the final odds. In the table, you can enter the names of teams, select accounts and indicate the odds. Having received the list of express trains, we place bets at bookmakers.
We register in several offices
To play on the strategy for the correct score in football, you need to bet in several offices. Not in all bookmakers it is possible to place bets with express bets with accurate results, especially if there are more than 100 of them. Therefore, it is better to bet in at least five or six offices. Thus, it is possible to distribute the profit over several streams without attracting the attention of the "jury".
Even if the office agrees to accept such bets, then sooner or later it will end, and your highs will be cut or the number of bets will be reduced to a minimum. Naturally, you should choose the most reliable bookmakers with a good reputation. Check out our. Good rates to you!
The program "Correct Score", as you might guess, is designed to help bettors in determining the exact score in a football match. It was developed for a long time, and today it is practically not used, since newer analogues with extended functionality have already appeared, which have taken the place of this software on the market.
Like other ancillary programs in the world of sports betting, this software is focused on the mathematical calculation of the most probable outcomes, taking into account the previous results of the teams. After all, sports betting enthusiasts themselves take into account similar factors when thinking about how to guess the correct score in football. The program only helps to do it faster.
It should be understood that the program for determining the exact score cannot in any way take into account the strength of previous opponents, it only analyzes the basic mathematical data.
For example, if the conditional Romanian champion in batches sends balls into the gates of his rivals in the domestic championship, and in the next game he has to confront Barcelona in the Champions League, then the program will still give the result that the Romanian football flagship should seriously upset the Catalan club the number of goals.
In practice, as you understand, the factor of the opponent's strength often means much more than the number of goals scored by a team in previous matches.
How to use the Correct Score program in football
The program for calculating the exact count is extremely simple. After downloading, you don't even have to start the software installation process. It is enough to save it somewhere on your hard disk and turn it on if necessary.
The program interface is completely in Russian, so it's easy to figure out what's what. At the top of the start window, you will see a message that you need to manually enter the amount of goals scored by both teams in the last 7 matches. Although it is usually customary to analyze the previous 10 matches, the developers of this program considered that it would be more expedient to further narrow the list of matches taken into account.
Then we press the button "Calculate", and the program for calculating the exact score in football gives the result. It is curious that the "Correct Score" betting program gives three variants of the result at once, calculated according to different algorithms. Do not be confused by giving out the number of expected goals in fractional numbers. Just round up the result in one direction or another to get an idea of the most likely, in terms of software, accurate score of the meeting.
Advantages and disadvantages
We are forced to admit an unconditional fact: today the exact score for football, the program is extremely outdated. Its functionality is very narrow, while competitors are already helping bettors in determining bets on totals and handicaps, monitoring bookmaker lines and even without the need for players to independently enter data on the results of opponents' matches.
And in general, just a mathematical blind approach to analyzing the probability of a particular account, as it seems, is doomed to failure in the context of increasing the bank in the long run. Without taking into account the strength of opponents, the rank of the match, motivation, problems with the composition and other non-mathematical factors, the exact score of the match seems to be just a tool for the entertainment of betting fans, nothing more.
Download the program for calculating the exact score
Despite the disadvantages listed above, the good news is that we have a free accurate counting program. It was originally such, the developers simply offered sports betting fans their vision of the auxiliary software for betting at no cost. So it would be unfair to criticize them too much for the lack of updates and obvious inaccuracies in the predictions.
You can now download the exact counting program on the thematic forums, where there are still links to this software.
There are several systems through which the exact score in football matches is determined. The effectiveness of the methods is in question, however, let's analyze one of them and determine whether it is advisable to use it.
Selection of events
Choose championships in which the class of outsiders and favorites does not differ much. Let's say the Spanish La Liga is not suitable for the game, since the gap between Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético and other teams is cosmic. But the English Premier League, where the level of the teams is more even, is what you need. When betting on the German Bundesliga, discard the games against Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, and for the French Ligue 1, discard the games against PSG.
Bet on teams that are in the middle of the tournament table - 8-12th places. Ignore clubs that have long streaks of draws, losses or wins. Choose teams that go exactly the distance of the competition, evenly alternating different outcomes.
System principle
The rating (strength) of the opponents' attack and defense is calculated. For this, the results of the last 5 matches are taken (the hosts - home games, the guests - away). Extreme values are discarded: the most productive and most "dry" fight. For example, if a team scored 1, 2, 3, 2 and 4 goals, then 1 and 5 are eliminated. The remaining results are added and divided by 3 (2 + 3 + 2/3 = 2.33). The team's attack rating is 2.33.
To calculate the defense, we perform identical actions, but take into account the conceded balls. Let's say the club conceded 1, 0, 1, 3 and 2 goals. We do not count 0 and 3. The remaining numbers are summed up and divided by 3 - 1 + 1 + 2/3 = 1.33. it defense rating... We do the same with the results of the opposing team. For example, her attack rating is 1 and her defense rating is 2.
Attack power of one side now stacks with the defense rating of the other. The resulting number is halved. So we predict how many one team will score - 2.33 + 2/2 = 2.16. The calculation for the second team is 1.33 + 1/2 = 1.16. We round the data and get the exact score of the fight is 2: 1.
Bookmakers offer to bet on the exact score in football, usually these are the most likely results of the match. There is also a "Any other account" bet.
Predicting the score of the upcoming game is a difficult task, but bettors are attracted by high odds. To place a single bet on a specific account is to rely on luck. Betting enthusiasts have developed strategies in which bets on the exact score are used as part of express bets, systems and incomplete surebets.
Popular soccer scores statistics
In reality, sampling by championship and year gives a different picture. If you need up-to-date information, it makes sense to independently analyze the numbers and draw conclusions on specific championships and matches at the moment.
Review of strategies for the correct score
It is believed that this is what the eight most popular results look like: 0: 0, 1: 0, 0: 1, 1: 1, 2: 0, 0: 2, 2: 1, 1: 2. In the RFPL season 2016/2017, these results were recorded in 73.1% of all games. The score 3: 0 did not make it into our G8, despite the high percentage. The odds for the correct score usually range from 5 and up.
Markets on the correct score for an English Premier League match, a minimum odds of 7.00 corresponds to a 1: 1 score. The strategy for the exact score "Fan"
The essence: "Overlap" with single bets the most likely results of the match. The number of bets is from 5 to 7, depending on the odds set by the bookmaker for this game. If the odds for one of the outcomes are less than 6, then a “fan” of 6 bets will bring a loss.
According to the strategy, be sure to include accounts 0: 0, 1: 1, 2: 1, 2: 0. The remaining 2-3 outcomes are recommended to be selected from the results with higher odds, where one of the teams scores 3 goals. For some reason there is no score 1: 0, but in vain.
Conditions for the selection of games:
- the games of championships and teams with low scoring are suitable;
- it must be a match with an implicit favorite;
- Limit the range of possible results as much as possible.
Example... Meeting from Argentine Examples. The game was expected to be “grassroots” (TM (2.5) - 1.55), the bookmaker was giving the advantage to the hosts. The statistics of the past meetings confirmed our choice - the odds were 5.7 on the 1: 0 score. This meant that the fan could only bet on 5 games. We chose 0: 0, 1: 1, 1: 0, 2: 0 and 2: 1, the size of the five bets is the same.
The meeting ended with the victory of Rosario Central 1: 0. We ended up in a small profit.
A variation of the fan strategy- the system of playing for the exact score 1-2-3. It is proposed to place a bet on 6 variants of the score of the selected match, while the sizes of bets on each of them are determined according to the following rules:
- 30% - the most likely outcome;
- 20% - for the next two options;
- 10% - for the remaining three results with less chances.
Based on the odds, you can change the size of bets in such a way as to be in the black when the account "enters" the results selected by the bettor.
Strategy for the exact score "Doubly"
Justification: about 12% of games end with a 1: 0 score. The home team wins about half of the games. Therefore, every fourth home win is 1: 0.
If you choose 10 matches where the score is 1: 0 and make a 2 out of 10 system from them, then with two guessed results the bettor will be in profit. Mandatory condition - odds must be at least 7.0.
An example of a strategy calculation... The total amount for all bets is 450 rubles. The system includes 45 express bets, the size of the bet for one variant is 10 rubles. Out of ten selected matches with odds 7.0. on the account 1: 0 with the desired result ended 2 games.
System calculation using an online calculator As a result, our income was 490 - 450 = 40 rubles.
Weaknesses of the strategy:
- in “grassroots” meetings with an implicit favorite, the minimum odds on the most likely result (usually 1: 1 or 1: 0) drops to 5.0, which excludes such matches from the strategy;
- many bookmakers do not allow to include more than one exact counting option in systems and express bets.
Strategy for the exact score 1: 0
The strategy is similar to the previous one. The difference is that the system is not used here. The player will be "in the black" if two out of 10 single bets are successful. The profit for the same costs (10 bets at 45 rubles) will be less than in the case of the system.
Profit calculation: 2 x (45 x 7) - 450 = 2 x 315 - 450 = 630 - 450 = 180 rubles.
There are bettors who find a place to "catch up" here too.
27 express strategy
The essence: The bettor selects the three most predictable fights from his point of view.
These can be games of equal teams or with a slight advantage of one of them, in which many goals should not be scored. The last requirement is relevant for all strategies related to betting on the exact score.
- For each of the matches, select the three most likely outcomes. For example, if one of the teams has a slight advantage, then it is 1: 0, 2: 0, 2: 1. We get three games with three results.
- We make all kinds of accumulators from three matches, in total - 27. If all three matches do not go beyond our forecasts, then one accumulator plays.
An approximate calculation shows that if the odds are on average 7.0, then by spending only 135 rubles (27 bets of 5 rubles each), we will get a profit
5 x 7 x 7 x 7 = 5 x 343 = 1715 - 135 = 1580 rubles.
Plus-minus one system
The essence: The likely score is predicted for each of the 4 selected matches.
For each of the outcomes, by subtracting and adding one goal, we make up four more accounts. It turns out one basic result plus 4 additional ones for each game - a total of 20 results, from which single bets are then formed, as well as double, triple quadruple multiples.
conclusions
Various ways of playing and strategies for counting in football, despite all the difficulties, arouse the interest of the players. High odds for this type of bet, the use of express bets, systems allow experienced bettors to find interesting opportunities for the game.
Everyone knows that the most popular option for betting on football is the net result, that is, the victory of one or the other team. Only a few players bet on the exact score. Of course, you can purchase information about the outcome of a match from cheaters, but we prefer careful analysis and a well-developed strategy.
Probability betting
First of all, let's consider a strategy that involves the simplest analysis. Not everyone knows, but about half of football matches end in a draw 0: 0 or 1: 1, as well as a minimum victory of one of the teams with a score of 1: 0 or 2: 1. Usually in favor of the club that plays at home. The 2: 0 outcome is also popular.
What do we need to do? First, we should discard the most productive tournaments, because they are automatic and the most unpredictable. An important match of the Champions League or a fundamental confrontation between two giants of European football (Premier League, Primera, Serie A) is ideal for betting on the exact score. There will be no superfluous and some very mediocre league, where they score little and often play on zero.
The odds for these outcomes are always high, so you need to find the four to five most favorable matches in the line. Be sure to take into account all the factors: the current form of the teams, the weather, the price of the fight, home field, statistics of personal meetings. Using data from previous confrontations, you can deduce a certain arithmetic mean. Ideally, you need to find several matches from the same championship, where the scores are often repeated, and bet the same amount on the same outcome. At the same time, it is important to correctly calculate the odds, so that if you win at least one bet, you will receive income.
You can also increase the number of matches, but in this situation you need to have a good bank and carefully analyze all the numbers. In any case, this scheme works on a short-term basis, and it is not always possible to use it. Whatever specialist you are, in football, not everything lends itself to logic, so the theory of probability is more suitable for gamblers.
Long Term Strategy
To get a stable profit, there is a very interesting scheme that advanced bettors often use. Its essence is to select four events and determine the final result. You found four matches, pondered how they might end. Then you need to add and vice versa remove one ball for each of the clubs.
For example, the score was 1: 0, it will become 0: 0, 1: 1, etc. The next step is a system with which you can calculate all real outcomes using express and single bets. A total of fifteen variations are offered: four single bets and eleven express bets, which mix all four different accounts with each other. You bet on each a fixed amount of money. It is possible to get income if at least two bets pass.
There is also a simpler scheme. In football, about twelve percent of matches end with a minimum home win (1-0). They win half of all games. The home club manages to win 1-0 25% of the time for every four bouts. Thus, in ten meetings, a similar score is real in 20% of matches. You need to select ten events with a total odds over seven and bet on them. If at least two outcomes play, you can increase your pot.
Outcomes
As you can see, betting on the correct score has two different paths. The first is the simplest one, where you do not invent a bicycle, but act adventurously. It is more suitable for beginners with a stable, but not huge pot, to get a taste of the game. The second is generally recognized, but only professionals can make money on it.
Winning accurate scores is possible both at short and long distances. However, never trust those who do not describe each step individually, even if this person won several times in a row. In the absence of deliberate action, this is nothing more than an accident.
